Friday, September 29, 2017

GDP calculation is mysterious in Q1 FY2017-18, reality GDP is only 3.4%

Look at this table given by Govt, for releasing the Q1 2017-18. Link here.
http://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/press_release/PRESS_NOTE-Q1_2017-18_31aug17.pdf

The amount in the row titled "Valuables" jumped from Rs 34687 Crores in Q1 of 2016-17  to Rs 105716 Crores, a whopping 205% increase. Valuables is Jewels and Art works added in the nation at Constant price as per RBI definition. Link here: https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=13552


The Govt has not explained this anomaly. Let's do an average of Q1/2014-15 and Q1/2015-16 and let's use that number to find the Total GDP.
Average Valuables for 2017-18 = [Rs 40244 + Rs 34687 ]/2 ===> Rs 37400(~)

After replacing this new Average in the above table, let's do GDP total: ==> Rs 3041829 Crores.

Now, how much is growth?   { [ Rs 3041829(Q1-2017/18)   - Rs  2941846(Q1-2016/17) ] / Rs  2941846 * 100 }
                                       
                                           ===> 3.4%

So, if we remove the anomaly of Jewels/Diamonds/PreciousStones/Arts under the Valuables Row, the growth for Q1-2017-18  is only at 3.4%.

Or the Govt need to explain how the Valuables jumped 200% in Q1 2017-18. 




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